The Summit, N.J., company earned $16 million, or 4 cents a share, for the most recent quarter. Excluding certain charges, Celgene earned 9 cents a share, 2 cents better than the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.

Last week, the Federal Reserve released the transcripts of its meetings from 2000 (the Fed releases its transcripts with a lag of at least five years).  I've found that transcripts of Fed meetings from almost six years ago can make for interesting reading. Here's an exchange from the November 2000 meeting (page 94 of the transcript) which took place against the backdrop of the Florida recount in the presidential election:

Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow (joking about the possibility of a recount of the Fed's decision on rates): "And finally, I just want to say that if there is going to be a recount, I would like to speak first because those of us in Chicago know how to handle recounts!"

Chairman Alan Greenspan: "I've heard that if you rig the numbers in the beginning, you won't have to do a recount."

An evangelical minister and an investment banker arrived at Heaven's gate one day together.

But the Federal Reserve says that inflation is controlled. Maybe the weekly chart of the CRB might take issue with that.

Average change is down 0.33% with 15 of the 23 issues declining.

The salad days are over for the banks I believe, the Fed has finally gotten the higher end of the bond rates moving up sharply, whether or not they wanted this. The banks as dictated by the BKX index still show stability up here near the highs, yet a break below 105 on the index would be very bearish indeed. Watch the banks they are key to stability or failure at these levels. The story is developing and the plot is thickening.

The rejection has become even stronger, and the selling is beginning to cause some real concern among traders. Perhaps it should...this is the first time since January 3, 2000 that we've seen the S&P hit a new yearly high, then reverse to close lower with the largest intraday range in at least 30 days - in other words, a strong rejection of a new high.  In the past decade, this has happened 5 times and the S&P was lower 3 days later 4 of those times by an average of -3.4%.

"Okay. Lately, the headline has delivered a punch, but has been followed by a second one, courtesy of the revisions. So look back before you leap. Take the one-two before the dive, eh? As a matter of fact, why not stay in the bunker for the first half hour at least as they usually beat the first entrants into the fray like so many rented mules. Don’t know about you guys, but I have had about a belly-full of all the controversy surrounding the Labor Force Participation Rate, the discouraged, disconnected and discombobulated workers,

adjusted or not. I don’t give a rat’s patootie any more about the size of the Labor Pool or the Birth/Death/Man/Woman/Infinity models (Aren’t those Sam Jaffe’s lines from the opening each week of “Ben Casey”?). How many more months do we have to cheer the creation of subcontractor positions on yet another,Vegas condo? Or bed-pan slingers being hired in droves in Billings? Waiters and waitresses are a dime a dozen,and gettin’ cheaper. Aren’t’ you just jumpin’ for joy? Can’t the government just count the dang unemployed and,knock off the garbage? Never. Thus, I don’t know what’s gonna’ happen as I am pretty much shut down at the moment. I have only a miner’s hat and the Numbahs road map and remain sealed off in one of the many tunnels."

He notes that this was very close to the decline in 1929 when it broke from +12 to +3 between Sept. 11 and Sept. 20, just two weeks off the Sept. 3 high in that fateful year. The crash was less than a month away.

"Then there was Alan Greenspan, who said that the 'new conundrum' was the collapse of 'risk premiums' around the world. Now our definition of risk premium is  the excess return required for holding a more 'risky' investment than a risk-free investment. For example, the excess yield spread between Treasury and non-Treasury Bonds of comparable maturity. Or, the extra return the overall stock market, or a particular stock, must provide over the interest rate on Treasury Bills to compensate for the market risk. While the esteemed ex-Chairman attributed some of this 'new conundrum' to excess worldwide savings, he suggested the untold story is the extraordinary low-inflation expectations that currently exist. He proposed those low expectations have been driven by the collapse of Russia, which showed the world that 'central planning' doesn't work. Many countries, therefore, eschewed communism/socialism in favor of capitalism/democracy. And that, ladies and gentlemen, caused a few hundred million educated people to be thrown into the workforce, which in turn has kept wages 'flat.' Mr. Greenspan observes that 'flat' wage growth is not just a U.S. phenomenon it is ubiquitous.

"On the dollar, Greenspan is bearish, noting that 'concentration risk' will, over time, curb capital flows into the greenback. To wit, eventually China will have too many dollar reserves and will have to diversify its currency exposure. He was also quite concerned about the looming Medicare/Medicaid deficits as more of the baby boomers come of age. While the social security deficits are quantifiable, he noted, Medicare/Medicaid deficits are not! He further opined that short-term deficits tend not to matter, yet long-term deficits (like Medicare/Medicaid) matter a great deal. Whenever the 30-year Treasury Bond begins discounting these deficits is unknowable, but eventually it will with an attendant rise in interest rates. Greenspan concluded his comments with a bullish stance on energy. He said that while reserves were growing somewhat in-line with demand, refining capacity, to process that crude oil, was woefully short due to 25 years of underinvestment (we are bullish on the drillers)."

Small Caps once again outperformed the SP 500 this past quarter as you can see by the chart above.  As we approache decade highs on this chart, I would bet that the trend is still your friend on small caps until the simple moving average the blue line, and the trend line which is the red line are broken. When this changes and the price breaks down, that will be clear indication of the party being over for the small caps. Higher interest rates are not traditionally good for small caps, so it is just a matter of time, but in the meantime, let the chart guide you. It will not get you in at the tops or the bottoms, but with clarity and safety you can pick good buy and sell spots.