Stock market trend: Possible Nascent Bullish Uptrend  

This is another tough week for me. On the one hand, two of my favorite sources for handicapping the market trend -- Market Edge and Investors Business Daily -- support the existence of a new bullish uptrend in the market based primarily on technical indicators.

 

On the other hand, one of my favorite sources for forecasting the economy -- and thereby easing fundamentals to handicap the market trend -- is flashing increasingly bearish signals. This is the ECRI Weekly Leading Index which is in a clear decline.

 

When I put these two disparate pieces of information together, one likely scenario is a very short run bullish move -- followed promptly by a bearish downtrend once the economic data kicks in fully. To put this another way, there may be a green light now to engage in some short-term trading with the uptrend. However, it will be risky business if the ECRI index is correct and the slowdown is coming.

 

In light of these mixed signals, I have begun engaging in some very short-term trading on both the long and the short side. My trades have been described in a series of recent videos for the street.com.  I recommend viewing these videos in their entirety, but some of the stocks I see with some short-term potential include, on the long side, Apple, Halliburton, SanDisk, Cirrus Logic, and Pfizer. On the short side, I like Gamestop And Research in Motion.

 

As an update on Prolor (PBTH), my favorite biotech analyst Andrew Vaino may well have put a fork in this stock by issuing alert that says that the stock may well be done in terms of justifying its rich valuation. Prolor fell on the news and it will be interesting to see whether it recovers.

Reminder: I will be hosting a free webinar on June 8 at noon EST illustrating how to use my Always a Winner framework to improve money management and corporate strategy.  The webinar is sponsored by Soundview, which has identified Always a Winner as one of the top business books of 2010.

This Week: IBD Blows It

Stock market trend: Decisively Broken. 

 Market Pulse 

I read IBD’s Big Picture column daily as a way to help assess the trend, and I was astonished this last week when after Wednesday’s little bull party, IBD called a resumption of the upward market trend.

 

After thinking about this, I realized that the problem with IBD is that it basically makes a technical, formulaic call based on past patterns of elements such as distribution days and rallies on large volume.  What it does not do – which is done is this column – is to also factor into the broader macro fundamentals.

 

Looking at those fundamentals, you know my story: I see the slowdown in Europe affecting both Asia and the Americas in a way likely to dampen global recovery.  I see the Obama Administration approaching our economic woes as if more taxes and regulations were the answer rather than true tax and trade reform.  I see no end in sight for an energy policy that leaves us at the mercy of foreign oil producers – and cowboy companies like BP.

Given this vision, I continue with my cash call – and urge the retail investment community not to become a cash cow for the rest of Wall Street.

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