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Monday, January 17, 2011

Clinical Data, Eastman Kodak, and All That Bull

Week Ending January 21, 2011                      Volume 19, Number 1               
 

Notice: Because of an impending book deadline, I will continue to publish this newsletter on a less than weekly basis – likely 1 to 2 times a month for the next several months. I apologize for this, but promise to send my subscribers alerts when ever anything really important is in play.

This Week: All That Bull

Market Pulse

The good news as 2011 rolls along is that the economy is looking far better than it did six months ago.  This helps account for the undeniable bullish uptrend of the U.S. market.  As this point, trading with the trend means being on the long side for the foreseeable future.

I can offer three interesting stocks I’ve taken significant positions in, two of which will likely have sharp moves up (or down) within the next week.

The first is Clinical Data (CLDA).  It has an important date with the FDA for the approval of its anti-depressant drug Vilazodone on January 22.  Roth Capital analyst Andrew Vaino handicaps the probability of approval at 75% and if all goes well, this is a $15 stock that should jump anywhere from 50% to 75%.

What’s good about Vilazodone is that it would be the only anti-depressant that doesn’t interfere with sex drive – not a bad niche in a market weighed down heavily by that side effect.  But even if Vilazodone gets approval, CLDA will still likely have to find a buyer among Big Pharma to really see a sustained stock price hike.

I’m cautious about this one because the short interest, though falling, remains high and that often means somebody knows something that isn’t fully disclosed yet.  That said, I’m significantly long this stock.

The second stock of interest is Eastman Kodak (EK).  This is a five buck stock with strong buy technical signals from Market Edge that has an upcoming January 24 court decision on alleged EK patent infringements by Apple and Research in Motion.  A favorable ruling would goose the stock.  But even in the absence of the ruling, EK seems to be coming out of the Stone Age of film into a digital world with some nice products across lines that exhibit some of the technological innovation Eastman Kodak used to be famous for.  Plus, EK has some other patents that it might be able to extract some royalties out of from companies like Facebook.  So I’m long this one as well.

The final stock I’ve taken a significant position in is FOLD – Amicus Therapeutics.  It’s a small biotech with a drug in progress, Amigal, that treats a rare enzyme deficiency disease known as Fabry’s disease.  It’s got a deal with GlaxoSmithKline to develop and commercialize Amigal, it has a strong cash position, and it’s already made a nice little move since Roth Capital initiated coverage on it. 

As for an update on some of my holds: Stellar (SBOTF) is a favorite long term hold – I like the promise of its technology. TBT, shorting the long bond, is another one of my long term holds that I hope to pay for my kid’s college with.

At any rate, that’s all the news that fits for now.  Bon chance.

 

DISCLAIMER: There are often typos in this newsletter and the culprit has to do with the fact that much of it is dictated using Dragon Naturally Speaking. The accuracy rate is quite high, but some silly things do slip through. So if you see something that doesn't look quite right, trust the syntax and make your own internal correction.

9:41 pm est 


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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is written for educational purposes only.  By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling, or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever.  Trading and investing involves high levels of risk.  The authors express personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.  The authors may or may not have positions in the financial instruments discussed in this newsletter.  Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein.  Past performance does not guarantee future performance.







DISCLAIMER: The newsletters and blogging on this page are written for educational purposes only.  By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling, or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever.  Trading and investing involves high levels of risk.  The authors express personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.  The authors may or may not have positions in the financial instruments discussed in this newsletter.  Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein.  Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

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